GM 2021 - Yes, No or Maybe?

Muddy Holly's picture Submitted by Muddy Holly on

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Seems ages since I've been on the forum - what's the current thinking on whether GM 2021 will go ahead?

I'm cautiously optimistic but certainly not over-confident and I'm definitely crossing everything!

Stay safe and hopefully be with you in a field in Wales in a few months time.

berthasdad's picture berthasdad replied on

How?

i do wonder if some improved rapid testing /proof of negative test might loosen things up? In addition to mass vaccination.
whether there is the time or ability by summer to develop a way that people can move relatively freely if you can prove you're infection-free?

cock-eyed optimism no doubt 

Nathan replied on

It is not though is it. The risk to those <50 and without relevent co-morbidities are of the sort we live with everyday. And whilst I am all for banning cars, we don't ban cars. 

Mikey's picture Mikey replied on

Not over confident of festivals going ahead but mentally, I an expecting to be going to be going to GM21.  Cannot face a cancellation at this time, need things to prepare and look forward to.  If it does have to be cancelled closer to the time then so be it.

there are reasons to be optimistic though.  Vaccination programme does seem to be ramping up, will have the double whammy of protecting the most vulnerable relieving pressure on the NHS.  Plus, hopefully will start a build up of a herd immunity and lower the infection rate.  We also have the warmer summer weather to come, this should also help to reduce the transmission rates and with more manageable numbers, we could have more effective regime of track and trace (although this was promised 10 months ago as a world beating system...).

IMHO, this comes too late for Glastonbury (too soon and too big).  Likes of Reading are doubtful, too large to have effective controls in place there may be good vaccination coverage by then but may not be enough and majority of punters will be too young to qualify).  Green Man may go ahead, with successful vaccine roll out (and majority could have had first jab at least by then) and small enough to have additional measures in place.  EOTR, for those lucky enough to have tickets, good chance of going ahead being just that little bit later In the year

but that is just my opinion and does not take into account the current new variant or future variants,

born in the fifties's picture born in the fifties replied on

"and does not take into account the current new variant or future variants""

or this government's unerring ability to turn pretty much anything into a shit show.

Mikey's picture Mikey replied on

Placing my faith in the NHS staff, Army, Volunteers and others who are working to get the vaccine out there, not the Government who showed their incompetence last year announcing a world beating track and trace which proved to be less effective than most developing nations (And the numbers show how bad we have been!).

blackcatista's picture blackcatista replied on

Glastonbury cancelled... As I said on the other thread, to have a festival going ahead you'd need there to be sure of extremely low prevalence of the virus in the population as a whole, and have no interenational travel. And you'd still probably need to test everyone on their way in.

It's less about having people vaccinated and more about being sure that nobody will slip through the net and infect the entire mosh pit in the Far Out Tent multiple times (even if they're all vaccinated, it doesn't always work and it doesn't necessarily stop them carrying it home and passing it on to others). I'm just not seeing a strategy that would make that achieveable.

Would love to be wrong, and will attend if it can go ahead safely.

And did I hear that Crickhowell is flooded again? Sad news, thoughts going out to people affected.

Krasnyi's picture Krasnyi replied on

Glastonbury cancelled as expected.

I'm not sure how festivals can go ahead until most of the adult population have been vaccinated. 

As a 61 year old I might get vaccinated by June, the follow-up in September so that would rule me out.

Not having Green Man again this year makes me want to fucking weep but at the moment I just can't see any medium to large scale festivals going ahead. I can't imagine going to a live gig until the autumn at the very earliest. The possibilty of this foul government fucking up the vaccination programme should not be overlooked either. 

I really hope I'm wrong. I dream about being at Green Man on a regular basis and wake up to find myself still stuck in a fucking pandemic. And it's fucking raining in.

Muddy Holly's picture Muddy Holly replied on

Glastonbury just cancelled - hoping the fact that GM is much smaller and 2 months later will help, but it's not looking good sadly.

 

Krasnyi's picture Krasnyi replied on

Here is a thought though. 

It must be nigh on impossible for a festival like Green Man to go ahead with planning at the moment with no clear idea of whether it will go ahead.

I already have four tickets carried over from last year. I'm happy for them to be carried over until next year but also if the festival were to go ahead in 2021 on a reduced scale in terms of both numbers and acts I'd be more than happy to go providing the virus issue had been adressed. 

A festival comprising of just UK or even just Welsh acts who could be booked fairly late in the day would be fine. Maybe no Far Out Tent this year. We could still have a bloody good time. 

 

ray_rad's picture ray_rad replied on

i'd be up for that

but as you said in an earlier post, the logistics of getting enough of us vaccinated for even that to happen seem impossible

is this going to be an over 70s festival only?

presumably, the vast majority of the crowd are under 35

and most of them are looking at 2022 before they get their second dose

 

born in the fifties's picture born in the fifties replied on

As an over 70 I could be selfishly happy with an over 70s festival (although probably not if all the artists had to be over 70 as well).  That aside, and taking the thought say of a vaccinated over-60s festival, with all of us desperate to go to a festival, almost any festival in fact, and enough UK acts desperate to play it, I'm sure it would be possible to get sufficient numbers for a GM/EOTR sized fest.  Won't happen though. Hopefully the aforementioned still will, being in late summer.

ray_rad's picture ray_rad replied on

from the guardian story on the glastonbury cancellation:

"A recent AIF survey said that the average “go or no-go” decision date for its smaller festivals was the end of March. It takes a minimum of six to eight months to stage a festival and it costs “anything between £500,000 to plan a 5,000-capacity festival to £12m for a 70,000-capacity festival, which is why we’ve been asking the government to intervene on government-backed insurance and give us some sense of a timeframe on reopening.” "

assuming GM is a medium-sized festival, that will make their cut off decision time earlier - end of feb?

i just don't see how a gamble at that point could be a financially secure enough one

i very much hope i'm wrong - but...

blackpumpkinhead replied on

For all the England centric government comments on here,you do realise Green Man is in Wales and we have our own government who is in charge of test and trace,lockdowns,tiering,vaccinations,schooling,policing etc and who will decide when events can resume in Wales,though in an event the scale of GM i agree with Ray Rad it might be a financial gamble they cannot afford to take but i have not completely given up hope yet.

blackcatista's picture blackcatista replied on

You're right, but with anything that costs money like insurance backing, it would most likely be funded by the UK Gov doing it in England and passing on the Barnett consequentials to Wales and Scotland. That's why support for business has been basically identical across the nations and it's one of the big limitations of devolution. 

I was thinking similar to others about whether a scaled down festival would be possible. Maybe with the Mountain stage as usual plus a big outdoor one where the Far Out Tent is. But you'd still get people crowding and breathing on each other unless you had so few people there that you could watch bands and socially distance, but would that be financially viable?

Elizabeth McEvoy's picture Elizabeth McEvoy replied on

Not optimistic.

Government's criminal mismanagement of virus response and putting up pathetic administrative brexit barriers to touring musicians have put the kibosh on festivals for 2021, I think. 

Cheltenham Festival will probably go ahead though.

Mikey's picture Mikey replied on

Looking at the vaccine calculator that Ray gave the link for, the weekly default for number of jabs is now set at 2.6m (this is reflected in the daily vaccinations figures published by the NHS).  For us over 50's our first injection could come as soon as the end of February.  More significantl, if you enter a lower age of, say 25, the second jab could be achieved by end of July/first week in August.

maybe this is something to be optimistic about but there are still lots to be wary of, like new variants, low take ups, effectiveness not as high or long lasting as expected, but it does give some hope.

Mikey's picture Mikey replied on

The National Eisteddfod 2021 has been cancelled Following discussions with the welsh governmen.  Scheduled for the end July start August, does not bode well for the Green Man

berthasdad's picture berthasdad replied on

UK on course to have jabbed all over 50s by that date.

Suggestion that herd immunity wil be a thing by July.

Apparently

today's headlines make for the most optimistic reading in a little while. Where are we all, on the optimism-ometer for late august?? I'm hovering at 6/10 likelihood of a green light...

ray_rad's picture ray_rad replied on

where are you seeing that, BD?

(genuinely interested - not having a pop!)

i'm 53, and don't expect to get my first jab until may - second in july

then you're not really actually immune until a few weeks after that

berthasdad's picture berthasdad replied on

I have to admit my wife told me she'd seen a link on Twitter to the piece on mailonline(!)...

.https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9222857/Coronavirus-vaccinations-free-Britain-lockdown.html

I'd love to believe it - and believe that even the one dose of vaccine massively reduces threat of becoming ill enough to need hospital treatment if you do still catch it AND is also reducing transmission rate significantly. 

but where the 'truth' lies, who knows? 

I'm 55 and would love to think I'll be among the jabbed by April....

ray_rad's picture ray_rad replied on

official announcement today is that all over-50s will have their first dose vaccination by may

(https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2021/feb/05/uk-covid-live-hotel-q...)

so not quite as optimistic as the mail would have it - but not bad

trouble is that a first dose only has just 52% efficacy (for pfizer - which seems to be the most widely given so far)

(https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n18)

obvs better than 0 - but still a lot of potential for infection

and with the government's insistence that a 12 week gap before the second dose is fine (against the WHO's advice), that leaves a lot of second doses coming as late as august

with a 2 week period after that before you have maximum immunity

and the vast majority of under 50s still not immunised

granted, risk of actual death in under 50s is slight

but more and more long term and chronic health issues are being identified in those under 50 who've had covid

with 100 children a week being hospitalised with the latest of them (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/feb/05/up-to-100-uk-children-a-we...)

do you put 20,000 pissed people together in a field under those conditions?

again, i really hope GM can happen

but at the moment i do not feel optimistic

blackpumpkinhead replied on

The info from Israel is that Pfizer is 90% effective after three weeks which gives more optimism.The government communication is crap but if May is achieved how it was announced is unimportant.I also do not feel optimistic but have not given up hope yet.

berthasdad's picture berthasdad replied on

If GM gets cancelled but we are free to mooch about, in august who fancies a camping trip? I'm guessing the glanusk campsite will be open....

smithers replied on

I was there for a few days in August, it's a fine site but small, was lovely to wander around, a sadly empty, Glanusk. Chances of getting a spot if restrictions are lifted difficult I would imagine, everywhere will be rammed

blackpumpkinhead replied on

Yes just booked yesterday,enough on the line up for me this year and at least i can cling onto hope for most of the year.Hoping for a Rockaway Beach announcement for next year but it didn't sound certain they were going to continue at Butlins.

berthasdad's picture berthasdad replied on

I am 55. I was diagnosed 3/4 years ago with last onset ashthma. Its really mild; I do use a preventer inhaler each morning and to be fair in each of winter 18/19 and 19/20 I got really bad viral infections on my chest.

But otherwise it doenst affect me day to day one bit. "At risk?" Bollocks, to my mind.

But..... I got THE text message from the GP this morning - off to get the vaccine on Weds morning. Brilliant!!

Mikey's picture Mikey replied on

Brilliant.  

can you send me the vaccine bottle afterwards.  I reckon it will be like collecting dregs from the empties at the bottle bank.  If I can get pissed on a load of empty wine bottle, I should be able to 'vaccinate' myself if I lick enough vaccine bottles.

Krasnyi's picture Krasnyi replied on

Just chatting with one of my students who organises a student festival at university and she was saying that she'd been at some meeting with other festival organisers in the West Mids area and there was a great deal of optimism about festivals being allowed to run from July onwards so long as most people have had both vaccinations and the R number is well down. I need something to hold on to.

Nathan replied on

All UK adults to be offered vaccine by July according to latest report. Of course, here in Australia, we will have barely done the over 60s by then.... 

 

Poppy9560 replied on

I'm only 56 and had my 1st jab (Pfizer) last Wednesday so maybe the speed of vaccination depends on where you live

 

If Green Man is off I'll be going to camp in Crickhowell at Park Farm same as last year - hopeffor better weather though as last year 3 tent poles broke in the strong wind

Muddy Holly's picture Muddy Holly replied on

Feeling more positive now, not counting any chickens though (mainly because there are no chickens here)

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